“The objective is to reduce the collision risk with whales while taking into account the impact on industry and marine transportation,” said Lael Parrott, who headed the research team.

The model, developed in her Complex Systems Laboratory, maps the estuary where the field research was undertaken, simulates the comings and goings of five mammal species (minke whale, fin whale, beluga, humpback and blue whale), the presence and movements of three types of boats (recreation, excursion and cargo), and environmental conditions. Nine scenarios were elaborated in order to observe the effects of various decisions.

Environmental Context
In 1998, the majority of the Saguenay Fjord in Quebec and a part of the St. Lawrence Estuary at the junction of the Saguenay River were given the status of marine park to protect the exceptional biological diversity of this area where fresh and salt water meet.

In all, no less than 13 species of marine mammals rely on these waters for food and almost half are endangered. More than 10,000 boat excursions occur every year to see the thousand or so fin, minke, beluga, humpback and blue whales that swim the waters. 5,000 cargo ships also cross the marine park annually en route to the St-Lawrence Seaway.

In 2002, the park adopted a series of norms and regulations to limit the speed of excursion boats, the distance between boats and whales, and the maximum amount of time a whale can be observed. The objective was to reduce the stress of tourism on the whales while at the same time maintaining a viable whale watching industry.

New measures are expected to come into effect in 2012 and their success relies on the cooperation of boat captains and on understanding the complex dynamic between the various elements at play, such as the number of boats and whales, where each of them travel, the currents, the tides, the weather, human factors, and the economic imperatives of cargo ships.

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